Trudeau clings to top job even as polls show he should go

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There is no good news for Justin Trudeau in the latest polling of Canadians. Not only has his voter support shrunk to less than a quarter of the population, people don’t believe he has the answers for the problems facing the nation.

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According to Leger, 46% of Canadians say they are living paycheque to paycheque and 57% believe Canada’s economy is in a recession. The poll also found less than a third of Canadians, 29%, are satisfied with the Trudeau government.

Actually, that might be the best news coming out of recent polls given that only 23% say they will vote for Trudeau and his Liberals.

That shockingly low level of support, just 23% support for the Liberals, shows up in the latest Leger poll and the latest poll from Abacus Data. The big difference between the two polls is whether Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives have an 18-point lead at 41% support, which is what Leger finds, or a 20-point lead at 43% support, according to Abacus.

Either way, if an election were held today, Poilievre and the Conservatives would win a massive majority.

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According to Abacus, the cost of living, housing and health care are the top issues, with immigration and climate change close behind. On three of those issues — cost of living, housing and immigration – the Conservatives are seen as better managers.

On health care, an issue the Liberals used to lead on, the Conservatives are now tied with the NDP as best suited for dealing with the issue.

Meanwhile, Poilievre’s popularity continues to grow with 42% saying they have a positive view of the Conservative leader compared to 35% with a negative view. Only 25% of Canadians have a positive view of Trudeau while 58% have a negative view.

On the question of who would make the best prime minister, Leger found 29% said Poilievre, almost double Trudeau who was the choice of 16%, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the choice of 13%.

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None of these numbers are good for Trudeau.

It’s not just that voters are deciding to cast their ballot for the Conservatives, it’s that they see Trudeau as the problem, not the solution. There is no path back for Trudeau and his Liberal Party at this point.

As for the long-stated claim by many pundits that Poilievre is simply benefiting from Trudeau’s unpopularity and that voters neither know the Conservative leader nor have they warmed up to him – that’s simply not true anymore. Voters have taken a look at Poilievre, they have listened to his message, and they like what they are hearing – at least enough voters to give him a majority.

Poilievre’s Conservatives lead among male voters, female voters, every age category, among rural, suburban and even urban voters, according to Leger. Abacus even has the Conservatives leading in Quebec with 31% support, ahead of the Bloc at 30% and the Liberals at 24%.

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These are the kind of numbers that would see a normal politician step aside to allow their party time to pick a new leader and recover. For more than a year, I’ve been debating with Warren Kinsella about if or when Trudeau would resign, with Kinsella stating repeatedly that Trudeau must go while I’ve argued that his ego won’t let him.

On a recent episode of the Full Comment podcast, we debated this issue again while also commenting on the pros and cons – mostly cons – of Trudeau’s possible replacements.

We’ve seen in the United States that the change in leadership for the Democrats has closed the polling gap. Kamala Harris taking over from Joe Biden has reinvigorated Democrats and Harris now leads Donald Trump in several polls or is at least close to Trump.

Could the same happen for the Liberals if Trudeau stepped aside?

It’s possible, but the low polling support for the party, the lack of faith in the Liberals being able to handle issues, would indicate that no change will move the polls. Canadian voters supported the Liberals in the last three elections, that won’t be happening in the next one.

blilley@postmedia.com

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