Toronto residents flood city lotteries amid ‘impossibly unaffordable’ housing

Toronto inhabitants fed up with rising rents are flooding city-run lotteries for affordable housing in new developments, but the chance of being selected for a subsidized unit is often less than 1%.

One new development in the city’s West End recently offered a random public draw to allocate 135 units with rents pegged to income ceilings that would cost hundreds of dollars less than market rates. Nearly 12,500 people entered the draw for the homes aimed at middle-income earners in the Galleria on the Park development.

A new analysis by the Toronto Star has shown that demand far outstripped supply for six lotteries to allocate lower-cost rentals in six new developments since the start of 2023, part of a city scheme offering developers incentives in return for including moderately affordable units in their plans. One development’s lottery gave applicants a 4% chance of winning, while the odds of success in another ballot were just 0.4%.

Rents across Canada rose 9.3% in the year to May to reach C$2,202 (US$1,607), with prices in Toronto averaging C$2,479, according to a recent report.

In comparison a one-bedroom lottery unit in the Galleria on the Park development would cost C$1,589 a month to someone with an annual income of C$82,000.

But the scarcity of such affordable options is part of why Toronto was ranked as “impossibly unaffordable” in a report published this month that ranked the city 84 out of 94 cities worldwide assessed for affordability, with Vancouver the only Canadian city faring worse.

Toronto’s high prices are driving people out of the city and driving up rents in nearby areas of Ontario, according to the authors of the annual Demographia International Housing Affordability report.

This is having “grave implications on the prospects for upward mobility”, said Joel Kotkin, the director at the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University, a co-publisher of the report.

Housing affordability is a leading concern for Canadians as the country heads to general elections in 2025, with respondents to one opinion poll published this week citing the government’s failure to bring down prices as a top reason for not supporting the government of Justin Trudeau.

Only the cost of living and concerns with the healthcare system outstripped concerns over high housing prices among respondents leaning against supporting the Liberal government, according to the Angus Reid poll.