After Draisaitl, Leafs play waiting game with Mitch Marner

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The wisest thing the Maple Leafs could do with Mitch Marner is wait.

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Wait to see how he fits in with new coach Craig Berube and everything the coach intends to brings to the Leafs.

Wait to see whether his on-ice performance can return to previous regular season years of excellence.

Wait to see if he can up his game in the post-season, something that has yet to happen for him or many of his teammates after too many years ending with premature playoff frustration.

The Edmonton Oilers know exactly what they have in Leon Draisaitl. He has demonstrated that year after year. His 1.45 playoff points per game average, through 74 games, ranks fifth all-time — among those ahead of him are maybe the three greatest forwards in NHL history, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and Connor McDavid.

The fact Draisaitl has signed for the season after this one and the seven that follow for $14 million per year seems almost a bargain for the Oilers in a hockey landscape in which superstar players are not inclined to push the contract envelope hard enough.

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Who can do what Draisaitl can? Pass like him. Score like him. Play hurt like him. Compete like him. Change games like him. And put his team in position to contend for the Stanley Cup last year, this year and next year all at the same time?

Who can do that?

Almost no one. Which makes the Draisaitl signing obvious and necessary and at a price that works well for the Oilers and is clearly agreeable for the player.

It isn’t so cut-and-dried for Marner, who will enter this season as the 12th-highest paid player in the NHL.

Is he the 12th best player? Probably not. But he’s in that range somewhere.

The Leafs have to decide, in good faith, with sound thought, that they are willing to invest in Marner — which will be long-term and expensive.

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If they are willing to decide.

They don’t have to do anything quickly.

Marner has to make a decision as well as this season unfolds. Is this where he truly wants to be? Does he want to be a one-team player for his career? Does that matter to him?

What matters to him?

Draisaitl was clear: He wanted to go after Stanley Cups with McDavid at his side. They are the best 1-2 punch in hockey. If they don’t win the Cup this coming season, they’ll probably win it the year after. Really, it feels like it is just a matter of time now.

Marner hasn’t had anything close to that opportunity as a Maple Leaf. He has scored 1.1 point a game in his regular-season career, not that far behind Draisaitl’s 1.18 per game.

But all that changes at playoff time, where Draisaitl has scored at near-record pace and Marner has dropped from 90-point man to 71-point man.

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How does that add up financially when he’s already at $10.9 million a year, already at 12th overall in salary, with three of his teammates ahead of him. This is the perpetual challenge for the talent-heavy Maple Leafs, entering this season and the future.

With Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Marner, the Leafs will have four of the top 12 highest-paid players in hockey this coming season. The other eight in the Top 12 come from eight different teams.

Next year, that will change when the Tavares contract expires and, if he does re-sign with the Leafs, it will be for nowhere near the $11 million he currently is being paid.

The Oilers, meanwhile, will have two of the highest-paid players in hockey with McDavid and Draisaitl, which is appropriate considering they have two of the game’s most prolific scorers.

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So how does the Draisaitl signing affect Marner’s negotiations in any way? A few general managers explained it to me this way on Tuesday: It’s not a measuring point, per se, of what Draisaitl is being paid. It’s more of a point of comparison.

The player thinks “how much is my next deal behind Draisaitl? And where should I fit?”

Marner and his agent will ask that question internally and probably externally. Around the hockey world, the $14 million Draisaitl signed for will for now be used as a gauge for everyone from their second contracts on.

Marner should slide in somewhere between the $10.9 million he currently is paid and below the $14 million Draisaitl will make.

If he stays in Toronto, he knows this much: He will get more than he would likely get elsewhere. The Leafs are known for overpaying players, which is how you wind up with four players in the Top 12.

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And with the Tavares money coming off the books next July, that gives general manager Brad Treliving the first opportunity to exhale on his current circumstance.

The Leafs have been rather quiet on Marner’s future to date and that’s understandable. They don’t want to declare their intentions. They’re not certain if they can live with him and they’re not certain whether they can live without him.

Talent always is difficult to replace and talent under the age of 30 is even more difficult to replace.

The answer was apparent for the Edmonton Oilers. They weren’t about to let Draisaitl slip away. The Leafs are not quite as certain on how to proceed with Marner.

ssimmons@postmedia.com

twitter.com/simmonssteve

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