Many people have heard the phrases “red sky at night, sailor’s delight” and “red sky in the morning, sailor’s take warning.”
While the expressions might have come in handy in the doppler radar age, maybe these weather folklore terms are outdated.
Environment and Climate Change Canada was asked to weigh in on the historical tales for weather prediction but declined to comment.
However, Orillia weather enthusiast David Brain — who has been keeping tabs on the weather patterns at his home since 1980 — spoke about some of the expressions that have been around.
“You still hear people talking about it,” Brain said. “‘Red sky at night, sailor’s delight’ — usually when there’s a storm coming in, there’s high cloud coming in and it’s a harbinger of what’s to come.”
When it’s “red sky in the morning,” something is moving in, but it’s not necessarily a big storm. It could be warmer weather is moving in, Brain said.
Is there truth to the folklore? Are the “red sky” sayings still accurate?
“I think they are to a point. It doesn’t necessarily mean a huge storm is coming, it means there’s a change in the weather, the red sky in the morning with the high cloud reflecting off the sun.”
What if the wind is blowing and you can see the underbelly of the leaf? Does that mean a storm is coming?
The Farmers’ Almanac said the folklore expression for when leaves are blowing upside down is: “When leaves show their undersides, be very sure rain betides.”
“That one’s not so much true. If the wind is blowing from the southwest, it could turn the leaves inside out. But it’s an old wives tale, I don’t take too much truth into that one,” Brain said.
Any other tales for weather prediction?
The “April showers bring May flowers” is another saying that has stuck around, but it’s inevitable flowers will start to bloom in May after the snow melts, Brain noted.
He did come up with a few other sayings he’s heard in the past.
The first one has to do with woolly bear caterpillars and the size of their brown and black stripes. According to the Farmers’ Almanac folklore, the wider their rusty-brown bands, the more mild a winter is to come.
A woolly bear caterpillar found in the area recently shows more black than brown.
The second one is about pine cones on trees. If there are plenty of pine cones, it’s predicting a long, cold, snowy winter. “You can’t always go by that,” Brain said. “(the winter is) going to happen whether we like it or not, it’s beyond our control.”
Other winter weather folklore includes one about onions: “Onion skins very thin, mild winter coming in. Onion skins thick and tough, coming winter cold and rough.”
Many other cultures have their own weather folklore stories. Visit farmersalmanac.com to learn about some of them.
While some of the tales continue through the ages, Brain is someone who relies on technology, including radar, to show him what’s coming in the days and weeks ahead.
What the scientific data says about the forecast
Brain said this year, a lot of models are saying it’s going to be a mild winter, while Environment Canada meteorologists are calling for a La Niña effect — which is expected to bring more precipitation, either in the form of rain or snow.
Experts don’t know yet if it’s going to be a strong or mild La Niña that arrives in Ontario, but Brain will be keeping an eye on it.
As an amateur weather watcher — with an Environment and Climate Change Canada climate station at his home — he is seeing the weather patterns change.
“I was never a big fan of climate change, I’d never seen it happening here,” he said. “But in the last three to four years, I have noticed changes, like how much snow we’re getting, how warm it’s been here.”
In the last few winters, the snow that fell in Ontario’s snowbelt area basically melted before Christmas. “Two years ago, Muskoka got 150 centimetres of snow and then it turned mild and all the lakes and rivers were almost at flood stage, which usually doesn’t happen until April.”
And last winter, the ice on Lake Simcoe melted before the province’s March 15 deadline to get fishing huts off the lake. “That’s never happened before in history,” Brain said.
Another trend he’s noticed is seeing more lightning storms happening in the wintertime.
“Weather is fascinating for guys like me, Brain said. “The computer models they have keep getting better. We can know about severe weather three days in advance.”
Using computer models helps share warnings with residents, as some can show patterns 15 days in advance, Brain noted. It’s also means more weather fans can chase the storms to document what happens.
“I like to get out chasing myself, I’ve seen a wall cloud dropping and in 2018, I was at the Barrie Oro-Medonte (Lake Simcoe Regional) airport when there was hail five or six centimetres big and it dented my truck like crazy.”
